We hope you enjoyed our coverage of the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and Triple Crown season. We’ll keep this posted updated over the next couple of days as news of the contenders and next steps comes out.

Replay and Brisnet.com results chart are now below.

News About the Contenders

Sunday
Blood-Horse: ‘Pharoah’ Settles In Well at Churchill Downs
Blood-Horse: Other Belmont Trainers Not Upset With Outcome
Blood-Horse: 2015 Belmont Stakes Race Sequence
Brisnet: American Pharaoh back at Churchill, to parade Stephen Foster night
Brisnet: Zayat, Baffert hail Triple Crown champion American Pharoah
Brisnet: Espinoza’s schedule remains packed; McAnally reminisces on past TC winners
DRF Live: Triple Crown Thoughts / McLaughlin’s Masterful Training Job
DRF Live: Here’s why I think one of American Pharoah’s races will be at Del Mar
DRF Live: Pharoah’s next historical test, older horses, doesn’t have to come for awhile
DRF Live: McLaughlin proud of Frosted, salutes American Pharoah
DRF Live: American Pharoah meets the press
DRF Live: American Pharoah in great shape today, en route to CD

Saturday Post-Race
Blood-Horse: American Pharoah claims Triple Crown Triumph
DRF: American Pharoah wins Belmont, becomes 12th Triple Crown winner
DRF Live: American Pharoah appeared to be cooling out well, and other notes
DRF Live: American Pharoah Makes History Loud and Clear
DRF Live: American Pharoah back to Churchill tomorrow; sounds like he’ll race again
DRF Live: Belmont also-rans
DRF Live: Quick Belmont Stakes Thoughts

Friday Pre-Race
Blood-Horse: The American Pharoah Story
Blood-Horse: Busy Morning for Belmont Stakes Horses
Blood-Horse: American Pharoah Flawless in Preparation
Blood-Horse: Mubtaahij Races For ‘Other’ Sheikh in Belmont
Blood-Horse: Haskin: To Move or Not to Move
Brisnet: American Pharoah arrives for his date with destiny
DRF Live: American Pharoah strong on the track, calm coming off it
DRF Live: American Pharoah continues to look well in final gallop
DRF Live: American Pharoah continues to impress
DRF Live: A good morning for Pletcher pair
DRF Live: Tale of Verve
DRF Live: Strong gallop for American Pharoah
DRF Live: American Pharoah has another good day
DRF Live: Materiality & Madefromlucky gallop early at training track
DRF Live: Impressions from Belmont training
DRF Live: Barbara at Belmont, Wednesday images from Livingston
DRF Live: Frosted
DRF Live: Keen Ice stepping lively
DRF Live: Keen Ice Jogs…. and jogs and jogs and jogs
DRF Live: Mubtaahij blows out again
DRF Live: Tale of Verve first out again

The last jewel of the Triple Crown has confounded horse and handicapper in recent years. The Belmont has yielded a motley assortment of winners that defies categorization. There doesn’t seem to be the same level of rules that apply to the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. Whether it be the Kentucky Derby with entries that have started at two, or the Preakness, where the advantage lies with those running back from the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont doesn’t have rules of form. The so-called “Test of the Champion” hasn’t been too kind to favorites either–only one (Afleet Alex) has won the last 11 runnings among a smattering of tote board shockers like Ruler On Ice ($51.50), Birdstone ($74.00) and Da’ Tara ($79.00).

It’s not just the fact that the Belmont has not been kind to favorites, but the race has been particularly unkind to those trying to complete the Triple Crown since Affirmed last won it in 1978.  Since 1979, the list of failed Triple Crown tries stretches from near misses in Silver Charm and Real Quiet to the outright bizarre in Big Brown and I’ll Have Another.  As with the other 13 horses to attempt to complete the Triple Crown try since 1979, American Pharoah is an imposing presence on paper and at 3-5 on the morning line, he’ll also be very popular at the windows.

The Derby hero romped in the Preakness, when a wet track prompted jockey Victor Espinoza to send American Pharoah to the early lead, and from there, he ran all of his foes off of their feet, splashing home seven lengths in front of Tale of Verve in a wire-to-wire tour de force.  This was the display of talent that many had said American Pharoah possessed, but before the Preakness, he had never defeated this type of quality competition with this level of ease.  Dortmund and Firing Line, though they did not run their best in the Preakness, are the best competition from the current batch of 3-year-olds and American Pharoah’s triumph in the Preakness was an exclamation point to his decisive yet workman-like victory in the Derby.  The question for American Pharoah in the Belmont, as it has been so many times before when a Triple Crown is on the line, is not necessarily how good the competition is, as all his foes here are horses he’s beaten before. The question is, does he have anything left in the tank after winning three Grade 1 races in the last eight weeks?  To win again, especially at the demanding distance of 12 furlongs, off short rest is the tallest order a horse in American thoroughbred racing can face.  American Pharoah has many positives in his corner in that he has early speed and he’s shown an ability to rate off of other early speed, too.  These are assets in this race, which often finds many closers and plodders with too much to do late.  While many will be rooting for American Pharoah to end the triple crown drought, from a betting standpoint, once again the short price is tough to take for such a tall order.

Second choice on the morning line at 5-1, Frosted impressed in the Kentucky Derby as one of only a few who was doing any real running in the late stages of the race when he came from well back and wide to finish fourth.  It’s always a good idea to try to avoid horses in the Belmont who are running back from the Derby when those horses showed impressive late closing kicks.  These type of horses over the years include Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Dullahan and Master of Hounds–all of whom were overbet and didn’t run particularly well in Belmont, where the early pace scenario is often very different from the typical frantic Derby early pace.  At the same time, it’s hard to put Frosted in this late-closing company, as he does possess some tactical speed and the circumstances he found himself in in the Derby were a byproduct of the large field of the Derby, where he was shuffled back at the start.  So, it’s reasonable to assume that Frosted will be more forwardly placed in the Belmont, and that can only benefit a horse whose pedigree is suited to the distance of 12 furlongs.  Frosted has shown slight improvement with each and every start over eight races, and another small step forward here should put him in the mix late.

Much has been made about Materiality’s troubled trip in the Derby, in which he, like Frosted, lost all chance at the start.  His trip was very similar to Frosted in that both were shuffled back early and came running late, but Materiality didn’t get clear run in deep stretch until very late, and trips in the Kentucky Derby can often be magnified, sometimes to the point of optical illusion.  Materiality had every chance to get the better of Frosted, yet was not up to the task and his late run had more the feel of a horse who was passing tiring foes rather than the tried and true closing kick of Frosted.  That isn’t to say that there aren’t things to like about Materiality.  He’s lightly raced and is eligible to improve.  He showed some tactical speed when he won all three starts at Gulfstream earlier this year.  He has a pedigree suited to this distance, being sired by a Belmont winner in Afleet Alex.  He’s the main pace foe for American Pharoah and you will know him early, but question whether he’s up to the task of looking American Pharoah in the eye and getting away from him late.

Mubtaahij was the mystery horse coming into the Kentucky Derby.  The Irish-bred raced primarily at Meydan in Dubai, and while he had been impressive in winning four of five starts there on that track’s newly installed dirt track, the questions surrounded how good the competition there was compared to the competition on dirt state-side.  While his performance in the Kentucky Derby didn’t completely answer all of the questions, it did show that he’s at the very least up to the task of competing at this level.  While his Derby running line was flat on paper, there were some things to like.  He did show at least some early speed, which overseas shippers are typically devoid of when racing in the United States on dirt.  He worked out an ideal trip with that speed, and once his jockey realized that he was not getting to the winners in the Derby, he was basically shut down in deep stretch.  Trainer Michael DeKock has kept Mubtaahij busy with a long string of works beginning one week after the Derby and running the gamut of patterns, switching from turf to dirt and ranging in distances from three to five furlongs.  There is a lot here for Mubtaahij to build off of and another move forward puts him in position to threaten for the win spot.

Madefromlucky was no match for American Pharoah in a pair of graded stakes at Oaklawn earlier this year, and his connections obviously could sense that he was not up to the task for a third try against Pharoah, indicated by bypassing the Derby when he had earned a spot in the starting gate.  He was then shipped to Belmont where hewon the Peter Pan last month against a small field of four other horses, nonel of whom had ever won a graded stakes race.  For longshot players, there are some things to like, however.  As the distances have increased this spring, Madefromlucky has improved along with them, and he possesses a running style that should fit well here.  Still, this is a large step up in class and Madefromlucky has not proven in the past that he’s up to this level.

Tale of Verve shocked in the Preakness when he clunked up for second for trainer Dallas Stewart, who seems to have a knack for the late-running longshots in Classic races, having trained Derby bridesmaids Golden Soul and Commanding Curve.  But like the success of Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, Tale of Verve’s Preakness prowess can be explained by the hot early pace in front him, when American Pharoah ran Dortmund and all other frontrunners into the ground early, setting up Tale of Verve to swoop in late for second place.  This scenario is unlikely in the Belmont, and off the heels of the Preakness, Tale of Verve will likely be overbet even at 15-1 on the morning line.

Frammento and Keen Ice round out the field and both are the type of plodders who need everything in front of them to go just right for them to have a chance to display their late kick.  This is the type of early pace scenario that is not often seen in the Belmont.  Both Frammento and particularly Keen Ice did show some late interest in the Derby after having lagged far behind early, but neither was a match for the winner, and neither has shown much at this level over the course of many tries.  If you believe an insane pace duel could develop, however, these two are the longshots you would want, but they’re tough to take in the win spot.

– Chris Rossi

2015 Belmont Stakes Replay

2015 Belmont Stakes Chart courtesy of our partners, Brisnet.com