We hope you had a great Kentucky Oaks and Derby day! We’ll be back for Preakness day, until then here are the post-race updates on the contenders.

News About the Contenders

Thursday
Blood-Horse: Stevens Feels Firing Line Still Improving
Blood-Horse: Kentucky Derby Top Three Back on Track
Brisnet: Divining Rod to work Saturday for Preakness
Brisnet: Pletcher pondering Preakness options
DRF: American Pharoah and Dortmund return to training at Churchill

Tuesday
Blood-Horse: Haskin’s Kentucky Derby Recap: American Idol
Blood-Horse: Kentucky Derby Horse-By-Horse Recap
Blood-Horse: Mubtaahij to Aim for Belmont Stakes
Blood-Horse: Mr. Z Camp Still Undecided on Preakness
Brisnet: International Star sidelined with bone chip
Brisnet: Stanford confirmed for Preakness
Brisnet: Firing Line takes tough Derby loss in stride
DRF: Privman: A few nuggets from my Ky Derby analysis
DRF: International Star OUT of Preakness with ankle chip
The Racing Biz: Firing Line slated for Wednesday jog
The Racing Biz: Next stop for Bodhisattva may be Preakness
The Racing Biz: Divining Rod connex €œleaning towards€ Preakness

Monday
Blood-Horse: Top Three Derby Finishers Stretch Legs Monday
DRF: Potential Preakness field perhaps half that of Derby
DRF: Pletcher keeping three under Preakness consideration; no decisions imminent
DRF: Trakus data on ground loss in Kentucky Derby; horse with fastest 1/16th
DRF: Mubtaahij pointed to Belmont Stakes

Sunday
Blood-Horse: Kentucky Derby Race Sequence
Blood-Horse: Preakness Could Be Rematch for Derby Top 3
Blood-Horse: Firing Line to Preakness (Video)
Blood-Horse: Baffert: Derby Win ‘Was a Big Sigh of Relief’
Brisnet: Preakness rematch likely for American Pharoah, Dortmund
Brisnet: Derby runner-up Firing Line headed for Preakness showdown with Baffert pair
Brisnet: Frosted, Pletcher trio to ship to New York; Bolo back to turf
DRF: Top 3 from Derby to be pointed to Preakness
DRF: Upstart, eased in Derby, is okay, Violette says
DRF: All OK this a.m. with Far Right and Tencendur
DRF: Also rans, and future runs
Churchill Downs: Sunday Morning Barn Notes (pdf)
Churchill Downs: Kentucky Derby Jockey Quotes (pdf)
Churchill Downs: Transcript Post Kentucky Derby Press Conference (pdf)
Churchill Down: Kentucky Oaks Jockey Quotes (pdf)
Churchill Downs: Kentucky Oaks Trainer Quotes (pdf)

The 141st running of the Kentucky Oaks features an incredibly talented and competitive field of 14, including four Grade 1 winners (five, if Peace and War draws in from the also-eligible list). However, only four entrants have attempted the 9 furlongs (1 1/8 miles) distance before, making this an interesting race to handicap indeed.

The morning line favorite Stellar Wind comes in off a victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, but, as suggested by being the sole West Coast representative in this race, she hasn’t exactly been facing the best quality of company, as none of her prep rivals have made the trip east to compete. She’s also never been tested at the 9-furlong distance. As a daughter of four-time 10-furlong Grade 1 winner Curlin out of a Malibu Moon mare that broke her maiden going 1 1/16 miles on turf, Stellar Wind should possess the requisite stamina, but breaking from post 12 will be a challenge.

Not only is Grade 1 Spinaway winner Condo Commando battle-tested, she’s also the only filly in the field to have already won twice at 9 furlongs, and both times in dominating fashion. She captured last November’s Grade 2 Demoiselle by 11 lengths over subsequent Grade 1 Chandelier winner Angela Renee, and, most recently, she won the Grade 2 Gazelle by 2 1/2 lengths over fellow Oaks competitors Puca and Money’soncharlotte. Considering her dam Yearly Report won the 9-furlong Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan, Condo Commando’s stamina shouldn’t surprise anyone. The fact that she appears to carry it successfully in wire-to-wire fashion does. She gets a lovely post position (5) and looks to be on the lead early in her first start outside of New York.

Trainer Larry Jones should be sitting in the catbird seat with his duo of Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks winner I’m a Chatterbox and Grade 1 Ashland winner Lovely Maria. Both come into this race in excellent form, so the only question remaining is: can either (or both) of them traverse 9 furlongs successfully? Both have speed in their sireside and stamina in their damside, especially Lovely Maria, whose unraced dam (by 12-furlong Belmont Stakes winner Thunder Gulch) is a half-sister to 9-furlong Grade 3 Pimlico Distaff winner Rare Blend, dam of 10-furlong Grade 3 Ladies Handicap victress Rare Gift.

Both Birdatthewire and Forever Unbridled are beautifully bred for the Oaks’ distance. By 12-furlong Grade 1 Belmont Stakes victor Summer Bird, Birdatthewire is out of a stakes-placed mare by 10-furlong Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Wagon Limit. Forever Unbridled’s dam Lemons Forever won the 2006 Kentucky Oaks, while Forever Unbridled’s full sister Unbridled Forever ran third behind Untapable and My Miss Sophia in last year’s Oaks. Both fillies have experience over the Churchill surface, with Birdatthewire breaking her maiden here going 1 1/16 miles last November. The most enticing new angle for Forever Unbridled is a jockey switch to veteran Mike Smith.

Well-bred Angela Renee hasn’t quite caught fire in two starts this year, finishing fourth behind I’m a Chatterbox, Lovely Maria and Forever Unbridled in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra, and then a distant second after failing to hold the lead against Lovely Maria in the 1 1/16 miles Grade 1 Ashland. This full sister to 9-furlong Grade 1 Woodward victor To Honor and Serve certainly has the necessary stamina pedigree, but her proven inconsistency (including two extremely distant finishes behind Condo Commando last year) doesn’t bode well for her chances. Stablemate Eskenformoney likewise has issues, having been unable to defeat Birdatthewire in her two most recent starts, including the 1 1/16 miles Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.

The daughter of Grade 1 winner Sugar Shake (victorious going 9 furlongs in the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm), Shook Up has the stamina breeding but has yet to defeat either I’m a Chatterbox or Lovely Maria. Two others whose breeding and running style indicate that they are viable Oaks contenders are Puca and Oceanwave. Grade 2 Gazelle runner-up Puca is a half-sister to 12-furlong Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup victor Finnegan’s Wake. In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was closing like a freight train from the back of the field when she encountered traffic problems but still finished sixth, just three lengths back of winner Take Charge Brandi. Junior Alvarado, with whom she broke her maiden, returns to take the reins here. A daughter of three-time 10-furlong Grade 1-placed Harlan’s Holiday, Oceanwave has quality in her damline as well with her dam being a full sister to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victor Tapizar. A late-closing Grade 3 runner-up in her two most recent efforts, Oceanwave gets the services of jockey Rafael Bajarano for the first time.

The other confirmed late closer in the field is Include Betty, winner of the Grade 3 Fantasy. Don’t be shocked if she immediately falls far back of the field, as that is her preferred running style. If all goes well, jockey Rosemary Homeister Jr. should have her motoring by the time they reach the final turn. Getting the 9-furlong distance shouldn’t be a problem for Include Betty. In addition to being a two-time Grade 2 winner at 9 furlongs, her sire Include also won the 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs) Grade 1 Pimlico Special. Her second dam Betty Lobelia captured the 9-furlong Grade 3 Miss Grillo on turf as a juvenile; Betty Lobelia’s half-sister Crowned not only won the 10-furlong Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, but ran second in the 10-furlong Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks€”both on dirt.

Money’soncharlotte just hasn’t stepped up her game this year while testing all three East Coast winter circuits, with troubled and distant finishes against several Oaks rivals at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. Grade 3 Honeybee winner Sarah Sis may have defeated Lovely Maria in an allowance race at Keeneland last fall, but stretching out to 9 furlongs is a tough ask for this stamina pedigree-challenged filly. If Peace and War draws in from the also-eligible list, she’ll be an interesting longshot. A surprise winner of last year’s Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, she ran horrible in her first start this year, finishing last (17 lengths back) in the Grade 1 Ashland.

Honestly, with such a competitive (and well-bred) field, it’s hard to pick a winner here, but if you box these selections (after closely examining the contenders during the post parade and bearing in mind the track condition come post time), you’re likely to cash a winning ticket. Good luck!

Win: Include Betty
Place: Birdatthewire
Show: Lovely Maria
Others for the exotics: Forever Unbridled, Oceanwave, Puca

– Valerie Grash

2015 Kentucky Oaks Chart

2015 Kentucky Oaks Replay

2015 Kentucky Oaks News & Recaps
America’s Best Racing: Lovely Maria Delivers Storybook Kentucky Oaks Win for Connections
Blood-Horse: Lovely Maria Easily Captures Kentucky Oaks
DRF: Sarah Sis should be fine after being vanned off
DRF: Lovely Maria, Boo Boo Clark win Oaks as Fair Grounds horses dominate

The road to this year’s Kentucky Derby was drawn with chalk. The last set of preps leading to this race resulted in winners who paid $8 or less, and the largest win price on the entire Derby trail, International Star, paid $20 in the Lecomte Stakes and that race was all the way back in mid-January. So we have witnessed a very formful set of preps, and that yields one of the most competitive Kentucky Derby fields in recent memory. Let’s take a look at the field.

Trainer Bob Baffert holds a pair of aces, training the top two choices on the morning line in American Pharoah and Dortmund. The champion 2-year-old, American Pharoah has won four straight graded stakes dating back to his maiden-breaking win in the Del Mar Futurity, and he’s won these races with devastating ease. Any time a champion 2-year-old reaffirms his form at 3, as American Pharoah has done in two starts this year, an outsize reputation follows that’s often larger than what is deserved for the horse’s on-track exploits. And indeed, in this case, the hype surrounding American Pharoah is large, but a look at his two efforts this year finds just two common opponents in the Derby: Far Right and Mr. Z. Both of those foes are two of the longest shots in the race. American Pharoah’s Rebel win was a wire-to-wire cakewalk in which he set a slow pace and was never threatened. His Arkansas Derby win was impressive in that he attended a fast pace and drew off from hopeless contenders in the stretch. Neither of these wins gives a feel for who the real American Pharoah is when he hooks up with the quality that’s assembled here. Add in questions surrounding American Pharoah’s breeding, which is strictly sprint-oriented on the dam side of his pedigree, and we’ve got all the makings of a Derby favorite on which you do not want to take too short a price for the win spot.

The other Baffert ace, Dortmund is undefeated in six tries and is the more race-tested of the Baffert pair. He swept all three of major preps at Santa Anita and did so improving with each successive effort. After hedispatched Firing Line in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis, Firing Line opted to avoid a third try against Dortmund by shipping and winning the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths. It’s not every day that you find a horse that has not only won each of his first six starts, but who did so as the odds-on favorite in each of those starts. In many ways, Dortmund is more deserving of favoritism than his stablemate American Pharoah. Add in that he’s won over the Churchill track last fall in a an allowance race and there’s even more to like. There are knocks to be found if one is to look for them, as Dortmund has a propensity of early speed, which is often a liability in a 20-horse field, especially one which is as loaded with quality early speed as this year’s edition.

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out four Derby entrants, led by third choice on the morning line Carpe Diem. Drawn poorly in post two, Carpe Diem has improved on his 2-year-old form in winning both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes this spring. The question here is the post and his tracking running style. Drawing inside may force jockey John Velazquez to send early to secure the tracking position that Carpe Diem prefers. This runner has limited upside at a short price and his main rivals are drawn outside of him.

Materiality will try to break the curse of Apollo and win the Kentucky Derby having not started as a 2-year-old. This colt went from unraced to winning the Florida Derby in a matter of 10 weeks this spring. All three of his wins came at Gulfstream and all three were aided by tracking slow€“to-average early paces. Since he is so lightly raced, there is still plenty of upside, but like Curlin and Bodemeister before him, a lightly raced and brilliant horse does not always translate to roses in May.

Firing Line has done little wrong in five starts. He’s shown improvement as the distances have increased and he’s battled with Dortmund, both times yielding late after having the lead in the stretch. His Sunland Derby win, while impressive, came against no other horses who show up here. His ability to rate and track against Dortmund has some upside in a race where there is speed, and he’s drawn ideally in post 10. There is a lot to like about this horse that may be shuffled back in the wagering off his 12-1 morning line.

Frosted shipped up from Florida to win the Wood Memorial after having fallen short in a pair of races at Gulfstream against Upstart. The addition of blinkers two back in the Fountain of Youth has moved him forward in development, and there’s no reason to think he will not continue to improve. He’s a well-bred son of Tapit, who has some quality routers on the dam side of his pedigree. Frosted’s running style suits the outside post, as he’s proven that he doesn’t need to be part of the early vanguard to run well. At 15-1 on the morning line, he’s the right mix of price and upside in a race that may potentially be shaped for his running style.

Upstart had an eventful run of preps at Gulfstream Park in preparation for this race. He was disqualified from the Fountain of Youth, and a month later he appeared to be bothered late by a shifting-out Materiality in the Florida Derby, but no matter what, he seems to run his race every time. He drew way outside in post 18, and this is not unfamiliar territory for a horse whose running lines read wide, wide, wide and wide for his last four efforts. The question, of course, will be trip, because despite being wide in those last four efforts, he attended the early pace. With a projected early pace that places him in the back half of the field, he could find himself in an unfamiliar place early. Upstart is a known quantity with seven races under his belt; the upside to improve seems limited and the price at 15-1 on the morning line, while not terrible, isn’t exactly enticing, either.

Dubai invader Mubtaahij is perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. He won four of five races at Meydan on dirt after shipping in from failed attempts in the maiden ranks on turf in England. His trainer Mike De Kock has shipped horses to the United States sparingly, but when he has shipped in, those horses have typically run very well. While Mubtaahij’s wins in Dubai were visually impressive, the question is about the horses that he was racing against, as none of his Dubai foes can be connected on the race track to this group he’s facing here. There are a lot of unknowns in this corner, but the improvement since switching to dirt, and a trainer who knows how to ship all over the world and win, lead to a horse you don’t want to be on the wrong side of at a morning line of 20-1.

Any other year and International Star – SCRATCHED – isn’t 20-1 on the morning line. He swept the preps at Fair Grounds, improving with each effort, and he’s done that as a horse who has closed in fast and slow paces as the distances have increased. Still, he hasn’t run particularly fast in any of those efforts, and the group that prepped at Fair Grounds was perhaps the weakest collective group of horses out of all the preps. If you think the race will fall apart, he’s probably a horse you want to have at the price, but with nine starts, he’s a known quantity with limited upside, and he will need to improve a significant amount to win this.

Danzig Moon has only a maiden win and he was no match for Carpe Diem in both the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, but it’s not all bad news. He has improved as a 3-year-old and he has a running style that will put him in the back half of the field with a lot of expected speed in front of him. There is still upside in his corner, as he’s been lightly raced, and he possesses breeding on both sides of his pedigree that should suit the distance.

Tencendur appears over his head in this spot with better closers in the race and limited pedigree appeal. He’s raced exclusively at Aqueduct, and while the running line in the Wood Memorial may suggest a horse on the improve, he sat an ideal stalking trip in a race that lacked real early pace punch.

El Kabeir SCRATCHED has run in seven straight graded stakes with mixed results, often deploying different early tactics. His Jerome and Kentucky Jockey Club wins came attending early paces, and his Gotham win came from well off a hot early pace. With nine lifetime starts, he doesn’t have much room for further improvement, and while there was nothing wrong with his third-place finish in the Wood, a switch to Derby jockey darling Calvin Borel may find him a tad overbet for his actual chances to win.

Bolo is the most interesting of the real longshots in this race, having run credibly against Dortmund in his last two, and his trip in the Santa Anita Derby is worth watching again, particularly entering the stretch as he was forced wide by shifting-out horses. He kept top company as a 2-year-old on grass and has only improved since switching to dirt. Bolo’s pedigree is not a question mark, as his female family has runners that include Mine That Bird and distance runner Dullahan. There’s a lot to like at a really big price.

Lightly raced Itsaknockout has done all his running at Gulfstream, and it’s tough to look past the no-show effort in the Florida Derby when he was run off his feet by Materiality and Upstart. With only four starts, he’s still got some upside, but do note that he’s one who hasn’t improved much as the distances have increased this spring.

Deep closer Far Right won a pair of preps at Oaklawn before finishing a well-distanced second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby. He took advantage of a track profile favoring closers and fast early paces in winning the Southwest and Smarty Jones. Those races may appear better than they actually were, as Far Right also took advantage of vacated rails to further sustain his closing run. He’s another with limited upside and only to be used if there’s belief that the race completely falls apart.

Ocho Ocho Ocho could be an early pace presence and little more, having drawn the rail. He’s failed to move forward as a 3-year-old. Keen Ice has only the maiden win on his resume, but he’s the type of longshot plodder who clunks up for a piece late in the race. He’s very slow early, and he hasn’t exactly had the type of trips that would benefit his running style; he’s one to include at a very long price.

War Story has been on the wrong side of International Star in his last three without any real excuse. Add in the fact that he had some trouble breaking well in each of those efforts, and that’s a recipe for disaster in a 20-horse field. Mr. Z has danced many dances, having run against eight other Derby foes who have all finished ahead of him. He does have a propensity for early speed, and he has shown that he can carry it a distance of ground. Still, the window for improvement has basically closed, and there’s other quality early speed here. Frammento draws in off the also-eligible list with scratch of Stanford. His closing kick to finish third in the Fountain of Youth is basically the only reason to consider him at a long price; he’s not impossible to hit the board if the race totally falls apart.

– Chris Rossi

2015 Kentucky Derby Chart

2015 Kentucky Derby Replay

2015 Kentucky Derby News & Recaps
Blood-Horse: Favored American Pharoah Wins Kentucky Derby
DRF: Also rans, and future runs
DRF: Decent race by Materiality … not so much by Carpe Diem
DRF: Lets talk about the time
DRF: Great effort from Firing Line, and great work from barn to get that effort
DRF: American Pharoah shows substance
DRF: American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby